Anecdotal Evidence

 

 There are common phrases we banter about such as Murphy’s Law –‘if something can go wrong it will’- which of course is no more valid than ‘if something can go right it will’- although sometimes it seems as though one or the other is true because it feels that way at that moment. Years ago my mother and I used to joke that ‘every time you approach an intersection the light is always red’, regardless of the direction. When I tested the truth by counting how many times it really was red or green, it turned out that the light was green 52 times and red 48 after 100 intersections- exactly as statistical evidence would predict. Sometimes red was ahead and sometimes green.     

   When walking along a deserted road where it can be miles before seeing another vehicle, if a vehicle does eventually come along, it seems as though there is always one coming from the other direction so that all three people converge at the same place at the same time. Beth and I call this the vortex effect-as though the energy is somehow being drawn together to that one point.

    Lately I have been noticing how slowly people seem to move, so that at age 65 I walk across a parking lot or through a store faster than the average person, not because I am rushing, rather because I naturally walk and move more efficiently.  At the register in a store some people seem to place their items on the counter slowly and let the cashier check them out before reaching for their money or a credit card-rather than being prepared to pay ahead of time. When at an ATM, some people seem to be incapable of pushing the buttons efficiently. They buckle up and adjust the mirror and do all the other things they could do after leaving the bay. When driving, Beth and I sometimes judge how long it takes people to turn after they have put on their signals. A 10 is fast, safe and efficient, and a 1 is turtle slow, and 3’s and 4’s seem to be the average; Very few people seem to be able to slow down and turn as smoothly as their vehicle would allow.

    These are all anecdotal observations which I have not put to an empirical test like I did with the red lights, and the truth probably is that I become impatient with peoples slowness or lack of consideration and thus I  remember those instances more often. Science would be my clearest measure of  whether   people actually are slower or if I am being influenced by my own bullshit-as is so prevalent in the world these days.

 

Rachel Marie Powell

 

  Powell was one of the rioters at the White house, the so-called bullhorn lady, and is a divorced 40 year old mother of eight living about 1 ½  hours southwest of here in Sandy Lake, PA. She had her first child at age 16 and their present ages range from four to the mid twenties. Besides an apparent disregard for birth control and overpopulation, a search of her car turned up a "go bag" that contained a tarp, zip ties and two loaded magazines for an AK-47. During an earlier search of Ms. Powell's house, FBI agents found two other "go bags," one containing ammunition, rope and duct tape and a second one with Ninja throwing stars, knives and lighters. The FBI also found paper shooting targets with written slogans on them, including "Guns don't kill people, I do," and "Prayer is a good way to meet the lord, but trespassing is faster."

       On February 2^nd she gave a New Yorker interview in which she said that “I garden” and “raise chickens” and that she had been working part time jobs and sold cheese and yogurt at a farmers market. In short, she is an adamant ‘anti-mask’ protester who over the last year has been sucked down the rabbit hole of lies and conspiracy theories by people like Rudy Giuliani and Alex Jones and Donald Trump.

     Anyone unfamiliar with western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio should know that this is a darkly conservative area with an enduring provincial attitude. When Trump made his campaign sign “GOD, GUNS and COUNTRY”, this is the people to whom he was trying to appeal. It the only area that I passed through during my cross country walk in 2006 where I encountered negative comments from people and where a driver deliberately swerved to harass me. 40 years ago when a friend and I rode bicycles across PA, we were resting in a town park in Sandy Lake when people noticed us and harshly yelled for us to leave. 

     In January, when I drove to southern Georgia through West Virginia, Virginia, North and South Carolina,  I noticed that western PA was the only location where people still had dozens of Trump signs in their yards. Most of them will remain there for the next four years as people refuse to believe he lost in a fair election. Some of his supporters in Warren County live in dilapidated houses, but Mr. Trump remains their hero as he flies in a private jet to his Florida mansion. Some claim they fear socialism and the welfare state while cashing their stimulus checks; yet despite the hypocrisy  they prefer the greed in the abuses of capitalism over a more equitable, humanitarian distribution of wealth. Some defend their right to own AK 47s because the men who wrote the 2^nd amendment said so, forgetting that in 1776 muskets required 20 seconds to reload. Some believe they must ‘make America great again’ while changing the oil on their boats and trucks and ATV’s and drinking beer and eating pizza and not quite noticing that they have it pretty damn good. Others condemn the rioters but not Trump, and never acknowledge his role in encouraging the behavior. Trump once claimed  “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters.” That is True for some of his supporters. The gulf between opinion, fact and reality, between moral conscience and political expediency has become so skewed that I do not know if some people will ever crawl out of the rabbit hole. Postscript: Trumps attorney general Bill Barr said to Trump during Trumps final weeks: "..your people keep shoveling this shit out" ..."my suspicion all the way along was that there was nothing there. It was all bullshit." "...part of Trumps "..clown show." ...and yet there are millions who still believe it.

       As Neil DeGrasse Tyson wrote:

        “One objective reality is that our government doesn’t work, not because we have dysfunctional politicians, but because we have dysfunctional voters. As a scientist and educator, my goal, then, is not to become President and lead a dysfunctional electorate, but to enlighten the electorate so they might choose the right leaders in the first place.”

CoVid

 

 Had my first of two Moderna covid vaccine shots yesterday, and after twenty four hours the only side effect is mild soreness at the injection side-similar to any other shot. The second shot is scheduled for March 10th, after which additional side effects are more common although mostly mild and short lived. The Moderna vaccine is an mRNA type which stimulates cells to produce a 'spike' protein similar to the spike on the virus. The cell displays that protein on its surface which stimulates the immune system to produce antibodies against it; those antibodies later are used against a genuine covid infection should a person be infected. 

    I am disheartened but not surprised by the anti vaccine people and the general wariness against vaccines. Approximately 25-30% have a hesitancy about the vaccine. I attribute that to their historical suspicion caused by past abuses by researchers, and to the anti science stance of some politicians and the scientific ignorance of Americans in general. There are still many unknowns regarding how this virus will mutate and the effectiveness of the current vaccines over time, but so far they dampen the seriousness of the disease. As the virus mutates, new booster vaccines may need to be developed, but there is also a possibility that this coronavirus will eventually mutate into something no more serious than the common cold. We shall see. Meantime vaccines are the best defense against the rampant spread which will slow the mutation rate.  POSTSCRIPT: May 19, 2022- An NPR study of 3,000 counties nationwide found a direct correlation between those people who voted for Mr. Trump and death from co-vid. Those who voted for him are 2.26 times more likely to die from the virus than those who did not. That is because they neglected to get the vaccine. Reasons to not get the vaccine range from suspicion of government microchips being implanted in the vaccine, to fear that it was developed 'too fast' to be safe, to a faith in 'Gods will'. Much of that 'reasoning' is associated to misinformation they are consuming on the internet or television or in their local church. But there are annual awards called Darwin Awards given out each year to people who "eliminate themselves in an extraordinarily idiotic manner, thereby improving our species' chances of long-term survival."                The mostly Republican members of this group should all receive the award posthumously.                                                                                                                             

Another Walk

 This is another favorite trail a few miles from the house and the main reason for the refuge to be here are large hemlock trees, some that I estimate to be 200-300 years old. It is not a long trail-maybe 2 1/2 miles-but crosses the stream a couple of times (often called a "run" around here) and switchbacks up and down a steep slope on top of which live the oldest trees....I followed  these coyote tracks for 1/2 mile of the trail before the animal bushwacked off into the woods. It obviously had discovered that a human trail made for easier walking and incorporated it into its boundary by pausing to mark its territory at several stumps. As anyone who walks in snow can attest to, unseen ice or roots or branches can be treacherous, but the path was surprisingly firm despite the steep slopes.... Cornplanter is the common English name giver to a Dutch-Seneca Indian chief born near here. His history is too long to repeat now but when the Kinzua Dam was built in 1965 the government seized and flooded most of the 1,500 acres that had been given to him and his heirs "forever".  As always, click on the pics to enlarge them if you are so inclined.

 

Oil and Gas Revisited

     There are thousands of conventional oil and gas wells in Warren County, many of them in the Allegheny National Forest, and even in winter they are checked weekly. The access roads must be plowed to allow a pickup truck or, more commonly, an ATV to reach the pump jacks. Many of the pumps are on timers powered by electric lines that have been run through the forest-sometimes well buried and sometimes simply hanging from tree branches. The pumps push the oil into large holding tanks scattered throughout the area, and the gas is piped to large transfer stations and then further on to consumers. As I have said in previous posts, I use the access roads to hike and bike into what otherwise would be inaccessible parts of the forest. In all my travels I have never witnessed a major leak of either oil or gas on the surface, although sometimes a passerby can smell the gas leaking near a well.

      The main problem exists with the thousands of old wells that companies classify as “active”, despite them not having produced for years. With that classification there are no laws dictating how much methane can be legally released, and the companies that simply abandon the wells have no incentive to maintain any pipes and seals that may be leaking. Lack of enforcement means that some 11% of gas wells are leaking methane at various rates, and many of these leaks are miles from civilization-so it is out of sight out of mind to the general public. The DEP has asked for the private sector to help in plugging old wells leaking oil or gas, although regulations to address the abandoned wells have been opposed by the oil and gas industry.

       This issue cannot be solely blamed on the Republicans catering to big business, at least in the sense that most of us still burn oil or gas in our homes and automobiles. Big houses and big SUVs and trucks are as popular as ever in America.  Until, if, and when, the United States transitions to renewable energy sources… gas and oil and coal will remain the primary sources of our power. The Biden administration will attempt to move us into the future, but this is how we stand worldwide as of 2020 :

 

Published on 23/01/2020

Research carried out by scientists at Stanford University has predicted that the world could be run by renewable energy alone in 20-40 years.

There are a number of countries leading the way with this, by generating a significant proportion of the energy they use from renewable sources.

Iceland

Iceland is the world's leader in renewable energy generation and produces more electricity per person than any other country on earth. Nearly 100% of their energy comes from renewable sources because of their unique landscape. Iceland generates hydropower and geothermal energy, which produces around 95% of the country's heating.

Iceland’s current power generation totals approximately 19 TWh annually, which makes Iceland the world’s largest electricity generator per capita with 55,000 kWh per person; in comparison, the EU average is 6,000 kWh.

Norway

Norway produces 98% of its energy from renewable sources. Hydropower has been the primary source of the production for some time, but both wind and thermal energy contribute to Norwegian electricity production.

Kenya

Kenya currently produces 70% of energy from renewable sources and aiming to be 100% powered by green energy by 2020.

Uruguay

In the last ten years, Uruguay managed to significantly reduce its carbon footprint without government subsidies and without an increase in consumer costs. This has been achieved through a positive governmental regulatory environment which encourages the public and private sectors to work together. Power cuts, which were a significant issue in the country, were also reduced as a result.

The growth of renewables also attracted energy investment and now accounts for 15% of the country's annual GDP.

Sweden

In 2015 Sweden decided to challenge the world with the ambitious goal to eliminate its use of fossil fuel by 2050. Sweden has increased its investment in solar power, wind power, energy storage, smart grids and clean transport.

Germany

You might not think Germany has the weather to be a solar energy hotspot, however, they are one of the world's leaders in the sector. Currently, renewable energy in Germany provides more electricity than its coal and nuclear output combined.

China

China is among the most prominent investors in renewable energy. They produce around 25% of their total energy from renewable sources, however, they still use huge volumes of energy from non-renewable sources. This has meant that although China is one of the most prominent investors in renewables an increase in the growth of the country resulted in a surge of CO2 emissions in 2018.

UK

In the UK, wind power is the main contributor to renewable energy production. Currently, Scotland able to produce enough renewable energy to power all its homes and businesses without the need for any fossil fuels. The UK now produces more energy from wind farms than it does from coal.

USA

Just 18% of energy comes from renewable sources, and this could fall further. In the country’s 2020 budget, renewable energy budget fell to $700 million, a significant drop from figures as high as $2.3 billion in previous years.

                  So Beth and I are conscious of our energy use but still leave the lights on too long sometimes. While the debate over climate change is over, what to do about it is as contentious as ever. Seeing how poorly Americans have cooperated over co-vid- a disease killing us right in front of our eyes and a disease that a man living right down the road from us still claims is a “hoax” –even 441,000 deaths later- makes me think that Americans will be some of the last people at the table. The corporations are taking the lead with electric vehicles and other innovations, but that same man and millions more like him have no interest in facts and insist that electric motors can never replace internal combustion engines. They either ignore or deny the specifications that are rapidly changing in favor of the former. So the potential  is there for solar or wind or some other renewable source to power a non polluting future, but the technology and infrastructure is not fully here yet and the resistance among the fossil fuel adherents is deeply ingrained.

                    Meanwhile I walk and bike the oil and gas and logging roads because they make woods travel much easier. I know the politics and the science and the hypocrisies in all of us and live my life the best I can, however flawed.