Winter Scenes

I sometimes drive around the forest and take short walks to pass time, and here are a few pictures to document those miles...Ice fishing at Allegany State park in New York, the Loleta dam near Marionville,PA built by the CCC almost 100 years ago,some icicles along Minister Creek road,and a Pileated woodpecker on a tree in the Kellotville campground. Also in that campground were some 3 dozen robins, likely first year birds that stayed over the winter; young robins often do not migrate as far as older birds.

CoVid revisited

"If the Huanan market was the site of origin of the transmission chains that led to the COVID-19 pandemic, then the common ancestor of market-associated viral genotypes should be equivalent to the common ancestor of the pandemic, given appropriate sampling. To test this hypothesis, we assessed intra-sample variation of the SARS-CoV-2 environmental genomes from the Huanan market, assigned market sequences to virus lineages, and performed phylodynamic inference to compare the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 within the market to its genetic diversity globally. As detailed below, we found that the MRCA of market-associated genomes was equivalent to the MRCA of the larger pandemic." CELL-volume #187, issue #19 Which means that the covid virus originated near the market( after humans were infected after shoveling bat quano in a cave previously ) and all the associated mis- and dis- information was unnecessary.Any genetic engineering the Wuhan lab may have done( 'gain of fuction' research, which scientists sometimes do to create viruses that may be more virulent so that they can get ahead of potential natural mutations) and which subsequently may have escaped is an unfortunate risk that scientists sometimes do. Such work is also performed in the U.S. and may have been responsible for Lyme disease escaping from a lab off the east coast. Looking back from the perspective of almost 5 years, Beth and I marvel that so much ignorance and bitterness still exists, and that anti-vaccine men like Mr.Kennedy will soon be in charge of the U.S. Department of Health... One 2022 Australian study found that "The average weekly death rate during the study period was 19.8 per 100,000 people for the unvaccinated and 4.7, 2.6, and 1.8 per 100,000 for those who had received a single dose, two doses, or three or more doses, respectively." My cynicism applauds their contributions to the 'Darwin Awards' that celebrate the stupidest ways that people die, but children suffer from the foibles of their parents, and my sympathies go to them. I am fully aware of the misuses of power and how money and politics can corrupt the best intentions, but the scientific method is the best defense humans have against the flaws of human nature; the next four years will be a profound test of Truth and Reality and those of us willing to defend the higher aspects of civilization. Those who seek only to preserve power and the fortunes of their particular tribe will do a disservice not only to the human race but to the entire planet.

Winter Woods (click on pics)

Hiked 3 miles near Chapman Dam and Hearts Content today, doing a loop along a road then upon an ATV trail and back along an oil/gasline road. The partial sign is at Hearts Content, a natural area where the original loggers decided not to cut the trees in order to preserve a small section of original forest. So 300 year old trees-mostly hemlocks- reach much further up into the canopy than anywhere else in Pennsylvania. The turkey and black bear tracks are on a frozen puddle. An erratic climate has confused a lot of species, and likely delayed this bears normal hibernation cycle. I suspect that warmer winters may have bears foraging year round in the not too distant future, probably searching among humans for food when unable to find their normal sustanance...Although winter is not my preferred season, I try to find the beauty, and the end of hunting season has allowed me to return to the woods. In February Beth and I will be heading to New Mexico to hike,bike,play golf and explore the southwest-warm weather activities that I have embraced more and more as I have aged.

Snow...and the future?

...Had the first snow showers of the new winter today, three weeks later than in some other years; it has been a warm autumn. The closeup is of old goldenrod and the Kinzua lake shot shows the draw down of water that is common in winter. The DCNR/ArmyCorp prepares for snowmelt by releasing water from the reservoir-although that ultimately has been unnecessary the last two winters because of a lack of snow. That perhaps is because of the changing climate, and I suspect other new weather patterns will continue, especially now that we have a climate denying administration in power. It has been truly criminal how the fossil fuel industry-with help from politicians- has obsfucated the science, and how shortsighted the American public is in their acceptance of the status quo. I am quite pessimistic about the future when I observe so many people who claim to care about the environment hypocritically doing the opposite in their personal lives. They become distracted by deliberate propoganda about transgenders and immigrants and other issues, all the while the atmosphere heats up and the ocean acidifies and wildlife species die off...and they believe that none of the latter will affect them and their children and grandchildren? Do they truly think the current price of bread and gasoline and transgenders in the bathroom matter in the long perspective, or do they have no long perspective? They have just seen over 15 billion dollars wasted on the election yet they think there is not enough money for solar power or immigrant assitance or affordable housing? ...I have read books about engineers who are doing wonderful things about climate change such as designing new power transmission equipment to accept renewable sources, then I watch politicians forbid the importing of cheap electric Chinese vehicles. While importing vaccuum cleaners and cameras and bicycles and air conditioners and televisions is acceptible, selling automobiles that the average consumer could actually afford that might make a difference in American emissions is not; in truth, America prides itself on free enterprise until we are out competed by another country. So Republicans say they want to take America back, to dismantle the institutions and see what they can build from the rubble. Based on their lack of sound reasoning and disregard for facts and moral principles, I am fearful of what they shall erect. Politicians have rarely been our best people; now we shall see if the new leaders are qualified to address genuine problems.

My Final Trump Letter to Editor-with a postscript

>Letters to the editor in support of Mr. Trump often refer to Christian morality, and call him the “chosen one”, but that is difficult for the rest of us to understand when the man has broken at least 8 of the 10 commandments. Perhaps being anti-abortion is their motivation, yet in the year following a 6 week abortion ban in Texas, infant mortality rose 12.9 % over the previous year and infant death from fetal anomalies rose 23% compared to a decline of 3% in other states. Saving an embryo may feel right, but a day-old baby dying of malformations, or worse, being forced to live a life of suffering, has been one real world consequence. Look up the John Hopkins study... Contrary to claims by Mr. Trump, most illegal immigrants are not criminals so much as desperate people seeking a better life-just like the ancestors of present day Americans were doing. Many immigrants currently work at jobs like cleaning hotel rooms, roof construction and hard agricultural labor because natural born Americans do not want to do that important work. As for crime, the Texas Department of Public Safety reports that: “From 2012 to 2018, U.S.-born citizens were arrested for violent crimes at a rate that was more than twice that of undocumented immigrants. For drug crimes, U.S.-born citizens were arrested at a rate that was more than 2.5 times that of undocumented immigrants. For property crimes, U.S.-born citizens were arrested at a rate that was more than four times that of undocumented immigrants. “ In 2024, nationwide, the violent crime rate remains 49% below the peak in 1993, so despite fear mongering, crime is not the problem political propaganda says it is. In addition, most mass killings are perpetrated by white people, at 54%, followed by blacks, 17% and Latinos, at 8%. Check the FBI statistics... Despite Mr. Trump's denigration of America, the United States has been rated 3rd in ‘best overall country’ by U.S. News and World Report, behind only Switzerland and Japan. Anyone here earning more than $50 a day is in the top 20% worldwide, so when I see ‘Make America Great’ signs near houses where there are two cars in the driveway, a boat, an RV, a satellite dish and pizza box trash at the curb side, I conclude that Americans would do well to stop complaining and start appreciating what they have. Under Mr. Trump, the S&P 500 rose 58.3 % between January 2017 and January 2021, and in the last four years it has risen 51.1 % with 2 months remaining in 2024. So both presidencies have offered substantial market gains for all those with 401ks or other assets in the stock market. According to Investopedia, the national debt rose 33% under Mr. Trump and 17% under Mr. Biden as of 2023, but inflation has been a worldwide issue that has been the result of many factors- from supply chain shortages to consumer demand to profit taking to government spending. No president or country exists in isolation. The infrastructure being rebuilt under this administration and their support of cleaner energy sources are long overdue investments in the future. Those severe storms in Florida and North Carolina were predicted decades ago by scientists paying attention to reality... Some perceive Mr. Trump as being ‘tough’, yet according to his nephew and other family members, he evaded the draft in 1969 by having podiatrist Dr. Larry Braunstein, who was a tenant in one of his fathers buildings, write a false medical report claiming that he had bone spurs on his feet. Those perks of privilege were common during the Vietnam era, but since then he has mocked members of the military and tried to halt the peaceful transition of power that many veterans have died defending. His stated admiration of Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim Jon Un -both oppressive, sociopathic dictators willing to murder their own citizens-makes the rest of us wonder how those behaviors coincide with the Christian morality people think he represents? But I have no illusions about the sincerity of their convictions, and even close family members can disagree about politics and religion. Just remember that reality is nature's way of cutting through human hubris, and sooner or later truth emerges.< POSTSCRIPT- Mr.Trump won the election and some of my friends and family are deeply upset. While I truly wish the outcome had been different, my tendency is to see the larger perspective where politicians come and go. I encourage everyone to take a deep breath and continue their defense of truth,facts and the things they believe in. If someone or some policy asks you to do something you wholly disagree with, refuse.

Allegany State Park

We walked at Allegany park today (...spelled differently from Allegheny National forest because New York named the park in 1921 and saved that spelling even after the National geographic board adopted the 'egh' for the national forest) The leaves right now are just past their peak color, although compared to other years only certain trees had brilliant hues, with most of them a little muted/rusty.The lake was created by a dam and circling it is about 2 1/2 - 3 miles, with a swimming beach, fishing, kayaking and campsites nearby-the usual state park offerings. The weather this week has been exceptionally clear and warm, 70 degrees under blue skies, so Beth and I are taking advantage of it by hiking and biking and gardening and golfing.

Speaking of Plants...

The small oak tree in the pot is the second one we have found in the yard as a sprouted acorn. Eventually we will plant it somewhere like we did with the tree shown in the other pictures. The leaves of that first tree (a red oak) were eaten to bare wood twice, yet it refused to die, so we planted it in the ground for a year then replanted it in a more permanent location the next year. This year it blossomed to the size in the last photo, and seems to be well on its way. The following blog is about the latest research on plant behavior, which makes me extremely respectful of their will to live.