Reality Check

....a government based on misinformation and lack of analytical thinking.... wonder where this will lead the good ole' USA this time...The scary thing is that 1/2 the country blindly follow and believe the crap without looking deeper.. as for overall crime including murders.. It is All down substantially in the last 25 years..Just read the World Almanac for 2017 to get the facts

No link between immigration and increased crime, four decades of evidence finds

Date:

February 10, 2017

Source:

University at Buffalo

Summary:

Political discussions about immigrants often include the claim that there is a relationship between immigration patterns and increased crime. However, results of a new study find no links between the two. In fact, immigration actually appears to be linked to reductions in some types of crimes, according to the findings.

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FULL STORY

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“The results show that immigration does not increase assaults and, in fact, robberies, burglaries, larceny, and murder are lower in places where immigration levels are higher,” says Robert Adelman, associate professor of sociology, University at Buffalo.

    Political discussions about immigrants often include the claim that there is a relationship between immigration patterns and increased crime. However, results of a University at Buffalo-led study find no links between the two. In fact, immigration actually appears to be linked to reductions in some types of crimes, according to the findings.

"Our research shows strong and stable evidence that, on average, across U.S. metropolitan areas crime and immigration are not linked," said Robert Adelman, an associate professor of sociology at UB and the paper's lead author. "The results show that immigration does not increase assaults and, in fact, robberies, burglaries, larceny, and murder are lower in places where immigration levels are higher.
"The results are very clear."
Adelman's study with Lesley Williams Reid, University of Alabama; Gail Markle, Kennesaw State University; Charles Jaret, Georgia State University; and Saskia Weiss, an independent scholar, is published in the latest issue of the Journal of Ethnicity in Criminal Justice.
"Facts are critical in the current political environment," said Adelman. "The empirical evidence in this study and other related research shows little support for the notion that more immigrants lead to more crime."
Previous research, based on arrest and offense data, has shown that, overall, foreign-born individuals are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans, according to Adelman.
For the current study, the authors stepped back from the study of individual immigrants and instead explored whether larger scale immigration patterns in communities could be tied to increases in crime due to changes in cities, such as fewer economic opportunities or the claim that immigrants displace domestic workers from jobs.
The authors drew a sample of 200 metropolitan areas as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau and used census data and uniform crime reporting data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation for a 40-year period from 1970 to 2010.
"This is a study across time and across place and the evidence is clear," said Adelman. "We are not claiming that immigrants are never involved in crime. What we are explaining is that communities experiencing demographic change driven by immigration patterns do not experience significant increases in any of the kinds of crime we examined. And in many cases, crime was either stable or actually declined in communities that incorporated many immigrants."
Adelman says the relationship between immigration and crime is complex and more research needs to be done, but this research supports other scholarly conclusions that immigrants, on the whole, have a positive effect on American social and economic life.
"It's important to base our public policies on facts and evidence rather than ideologies and baseless claims that demonize particular segments of the U.S. population without any facts to back them up," said Adelman.

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More Winter Tracks

  Beth and I saw these bizarre tracks during a walk last week, made by coyotes dragging something along the road. They appeared almost like a single snowboard track with paw prints, and occasionally disappeared as if the animals had lifted whatever they were carrying for a time then dropped it again. At places the tracks looked more like the dragging tail of some animal the coyotes were carrying in their mouths. There was no sign of blood but because they do not give birth until spring the animal was likely a kill. After emerging from the woods the tracks followed the road for about 1/4 mile then reentered the woods and and continued up a hill.
   Tracks locally are mostly deer, coyote, fox and, surprisingly to me at least, feral cats. The latter are more abundant than I would have thought, for their tracks can be found miles from civilization.
   The sawmill is where local Amish have harvested some trees and cut the lumber in the woods, which is much easier than trying to drag the  heavy logs by horse power alone. They use small gas powered engines to run the saw-allowed by their faith for this purpose-then use the wood to make sheds and furniture and other items they sell to the general public. By contrast, modern logging involves huge tractors and buzz saws that can fell a tree in seconds, which are loaded onto trucks and shipped to commercial mills.

Just another walk

  January 30-  Went for a six mile walk on the mostly dirt roads near Lander, PA, where the land opens up from mountain to to field some ten miles northwest of Warren. This was a routine walk in the sense that I have walked a thousand others like it, and like many walks the first and last miles were the most demanding both mentally and physically. That is, this walk was neither mentally nor physically demanding compared to some, but the first mile always requires discipline and a few minutes to acclimate to temperature and movement after sitting in the car on the way to the starting point, and the last mile requires some effort because I am growing tired and see the finish line. At any rate, the temperature was about 25F and the sky was a typical western PA winter sky, with minutes of sun being disrupted by black clouds that erupted into heavy snow squalls that in summer would have been heavy downpours lasting 15 or 20 minutes. During the January thaw a few days ago the sky did not change, only the temperature, so there was two weeks of intermittent showers rather than snow, and that is typical of the weather here. Last summer I saw an otter cross this road where it passes over a small stream, so despite the open landscape it is close enough to wild, wooded areas to support some unique animals.
     The dog was able to run unleashed on these roads because of proper training and because traffic was very light-we passed only four cars in the entire walk. She did not and does not react much to snow, although it restricts her running if it is too deep, so she buried her head into the drifts and pounced after voles that she smelled, but never caught anything. As a routine walk the two hours was for exercise as much as inspiration, and the most memorable aspect was when, from a distance of about 1/2 mile from the car, I briefly mistook a guardrail for a human being. My elevated position made the forty foot long rail appear condensed into the vertical form of a person, so it required a few moments of watching to see if the form moved, and then as I walked closer I was able to see the illusion. Probably aliens have been mistaken by people seeing such mundane things.

Trump, Science and America

   (Time.com) "Soon after Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, the official White House website purged all mentions of climate from the site—all mentions but one, that is, if you consider a promise to eliminate the “harmful and unnecessary” Climate Action Plan. Soon thereafter, scientists and other employees of the EPA and USDA were told not to speak to the public ; a National Park Service Twitter account sent out objective facts, and had them deleted in short order; and the EPA was told to take down its climate-change page. This all hewed to Trump's campaign rhetoric, but it was shocking nonetheless. Seeing the 180-degree shift away from the science of the Obama administration was a stark reminder of the dangerous, ever-rising waters in which we now find ourselves. It isn’t just climate science. Trump may appoint an anti-vaccine activist to run a commission on immunization safety, and an anti-regulation zealot to run the Food and Drug Administration. Trump himself has called the fact that asbestos causes cancer a “con” and even refused to believe the objective scientific reality of drought in California."

        (CNSNews.com) – Nearly three-quarters of Americans don’t trust that there is a large “scientific consensus” among climate scientists on human behavior being the cause of climate change, according to an in-depth survey on “the politics of climate” released Tuesday by Pew Research Center. According to the survey, only 27 percent of Americans agree that “almost all” climate scientists say that human behavior is mostly responsible for climate change, while 35 percent say that “more than half” of climate scientists agree on this. An additional 35 percent of those surveyed say that fewer than half (20%) or almost no (15%) climate scientists believe that human behavior is the main contributing factor in climate change... Pew contrasted this to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which “stated in the forward to its 2013 report, ‘the science now shows with 95 percent certainty that human activity is the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century."

........The above quotes are more "alternative facts" by our commander in chief..and  the mistrust of science and scientists by Americans generally...really America..is this the best we can do? What or who is to blame for this widespread ignorance...our schools? Facebook? Religion? Whether or not one believes it matters whether or not the climate is changing and whether we can adapt or not, surely facts should matter in deciding our response- or lack thereof -to the scientifically measured rise in atmospheric CO2 over the last century. Yes..we Can move Manhattan eventually and relocate the population of Florida...but if the oceans acidify too much from CO2 absorption we enter uncharted territory as to the effects on global life...Below is the science of global warming for those who care..

  

--"Current rates of ocean acidification have been compared with the greenhouse event at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary (about 55 million years ago) when surface ocean temperatures rose by 5–6 degrees Celsius. No catastrophe was seen in surface ecosystems, yet bottom-dwelling organisms in the deep ocean experienced a major extinction. The current acidification is on a path to reach levels higher than any seen in the last 65 million years,^[44] and the rate of increase is about ten times the rate that preceded the Paleocene–Eocene mass extinction. The current and projected acidification has been described as an almost unprecedented geological event.^[45] A National Research Council study released in April 2010 likewise concluded that "the level of acid in the oceans is increasing at an unprecedented rate."^[46][47] A 2012 paper in the journal Science examined the geological record in an attempt to find a historical analog for current global conditions as well as those of the future. The researchers determined that the current rate of ocean acidification is faster than at any time in the past 300 million years.^[48][49]"

Why Income Disparity Matters

    This is a Scientific American article from 2012 that illustrates how the wealth bubble insulates people from one another and exacerbates bad behavior:

      "Who is more likely to lie, cheat, and steal—the poor person or the rich one? It’s temping to think that the wealthier you are, the more likely you are to act fairly. After all, if you already have enough for yourself, it’s easier to think about what others may need. But research suggests the opposite is true: as people climb the social ladder, their compassionate feelings towards other people decline.
Berkeley psychologists Paul Piff and Dacher Keltner ran several studies looking at whether social class (as measured by wealth, occupational prestige, and education) influences how much we care about the feelings of others. In one study, Piff and his colleagues discreetly observed the behavior of drivers at a busy four-way intersection. They found that luxury car drivers were more likely to cut off other motorists instead of waiting for their turn at the intersection. This was true for both men and women upper-class drivers, regardless of the time of day or the amount of traffic at the intersection. In a different study they found that luxury car drivers were also more likely to speed past a pedestrian trying to use a crosswalk, even after making eye contact with the pedestrian.
     In order to figure out whether selfishness leads to wealth (rather than vice versa), Piff and his colleagues ran a study where they manipulated people’s class feelings. The researchers asked participants to spend a few minutes comparing themselves either to people better off or worse off than themselves financially. Afterwards, participants were shown a jar of candy and told that they could take home as much as they wanted. They were also told that the leftover candy would be given to children in a nearby laboratory. Those participants who had spent time thinking about how much better off they were compared to others ended up taking significantly more candy for themselves--leaving less behind for the children.
     A related set of studies published by Keltner and his colleagues last year looked at how social class influences feelings of compassion towards people who are suffering. In one study, they found that less affluent individuals are more likely to report feeling compassion towards others on a regular basis. For example, they are more likely to agree with statements such as, “I often notice people who need help,” and “It’s important to take care of people who are vulnerable.” This was true even after controlling for other factors that we know affect compassionate feelings, such as gender, ethnicity, and spiritual beliefs.
     In a second study, participants were asked to watch two videos while having their heart rate monitored. One video showed somebody explaining how to build a patio. The other showed children who were suffering from cancer. After watching the videos, participants indicated how much compassion they felt while watching either video. Social class was measured by asking participants questions about their family’s level of income and education. The results of the study showed that participants on the lower end of the spectrum, with less income and education, were more likely to report feeling compassion while watching the video of the cancer patients. In addition, their heart rates slowed down while watching the cancer video—a response that is associated with paying greater attention to the feelings and motivations of others.
   These findings build upon previous research showing how upper class individuals are worse at recognizing the emotions of others and less likely to pay attention to people they are interacting with (e.g. by checking their cell phones or doodling).
    But why would wealth and status decrease our feelings of compassion for others? After all, it seems more likely that having few resources would lead to selfishness. Piff and his colleagues suspect that the answer may have something to do with how wealth and abundance give us a sense of freedom and independence from others. The less we have to rely on others, the less we may care about their feelings. This leads us towards being more self-focused. Another reason has to do with our attitudes towards greed. Like Gordon Gekko, upper-class people may be more likely to endorse the idea that “greed is good.” Piff and his colleagues found that wealthier people are more likely to agree with statements that greed is justified, beneficial, and morally defensible. These attitudes ended up predicting participants’ likelihood of engaging in unethical behavior.
    Given the growing income inequality in the United States, the relationship between wealth and compassion has important implications. Those who hold most of the power in this country, political and otherwise, tend to come from privileged backgrounds. If social class influences how much we care about others, then the most powerful among us may be the least likely to make decisions that help the needy and the poor. They may also be the most likely to engage in unethical behavior. Keltner and Piff recently speculated in the New York Times about how their research helps explain why Goldman Sachs and other high-powered financial corporations are breeding grounds for greedy behavior. Although greed is a universal human emotion, it may have the strongest pull over those of who already have the most."

January 11

   Writing in my journal on the 7th I noted that it had been "mostly sunny for two days now, the longest stretch of clear sky since early November", which was the result of cold temperatures in the teens and single digits. The dog and I did five miles near Lander, and I overheard passing ATV riders yell to one another, "I can't feel my face!" When the thermometer drops that much I cannot write out of doors with a pen, for even warm ink begins to freeze and skip within a minute. Today it is 40F and the dog and I explore the new logging road we had seen a few weeks ago. It is a loop road switch backing about a mile up the mountain then ending in a clearing where some logging had occurred before the weather turned. A steep cut descends to a lower road that then returns more or less on level ground to complete the circle. These open roads in the woods are used regularly by deer and fox and coyote- wild animals know easy walking when they find it-so some of the tracks proceed almost to the top. But it is a myth that they always prefer moderate angles, and their trails drop off sharply downhill or climb directly up rough ground when they leave the road, probably following territorial boundaries or whatever feeding opportunities arose.
      I had noticed large tracks on the access road, and at first thought they resembled a bear-improbable at this season-then wondered if they could be human or the print of a ski pole dragging in the snow. The thaw had distorted them such that I passed several minutes trying to discern their origin. At length the imprint of a large dog paw was clear in the ice, which confirmed that these odd tracks were the result of the dog running in a manner such that its feet struck the ground immediately behind one another, forming one large print that resembled a different species.


   

  

1/4/2017
      Mostly clouds with snow showers, 30F The dog and I walk an old pipeline road, more like the towpath of a canal, that parallels the Allegheny between the river and Hemlock road. In places it is as wide as a two lane highway, the surface grass and leaf covered, and I think it was probably a railroad grade that followed the river through Kinzua valley before the dam was built. Today it is maintained by the refining company which has replaced cast iron pipes with more modern ones and provided access points to the macadam road on the ridge above. From this perspective I notice all the trash that has been cast down, some of it very old-galvanized washtubs and the like-and some of it more recent-plastic tubs and lawn chairs. I doubt that future archaeologists will find much of interest here except to indicate the generational habits of human beings.
       A few minutes of sunlight break though the clouds, and during those moments I turn to the sky to deliberately burn the light into my retina. Sunlight in Warren in winter is a rare thing.
1/5
        Snow showers,20F  Work at the office and shop, then walk 4 miles on Morrison Run road 2pm. We follow the tracks of a man who seems distracted, for he meanders back and forth in a slow gait, dragging his left foot on the snow occasionally, and bushwhacking into the woods now and again before reappearing further down the road. I suspect that he is planning or checking a trap line at first, but see him near the end of our walk, when he tells me that he is searching for Chaga, a medicinal fungus that grows on birch trees. He touts its benefits towards longevity and explains that he had climbed "to the the top of the mountain" and back in his search  then found some right where he had parked his truck. I suggest that perhaps the climbing alone will add to his lifespan and he laughs as I leave him to his collecting. Other than the man we see only a few chickadees active in these cold woods, although there is evidence of fox and coyote in the snow. Because of the recurring freezes and thaws the stream is not iced over, and this present ice is apt to melt in next weeks predicted warm temperatures.