Winter Woods (click on pics)

Hiked 3 miles near Chapman Dam and Hearts Content today, doing a loop along a road then upon an ATV trail and back along an oil/gasline road. The partial sign is at Hearts Content, a natural area where the original loggers decided not to cut the trees in order to preserve a small section of original forest. So 300 year old trees-mostly hemlocks- reach much further up into the canopy than anywhere else in Pennsylvania. The turkey and black bear tracks are on a frozen puddle. An erratic climate has confused a lot of species, and likely delayed this bears normal hibernation cycle. I suspect that warmer winters may have bears foraging year round in the not too distant future, probably searching among humans for food when unable to find their normal sustanance...Although winter is not my preferred season, I try to find the beauty, and the end of hunting season has allowed me to return to the woods. In February Beth and I will be heading to New Mexico to hike,bike,play golf and explore the southwest-warm weather activities that I have embraced more and more as I have aged.

Snow...and the future?

...Had the first snow showers of the new winter today, three weeks later than in some other years; it has been a warm autumn. The closeup is of old goldenrod and the Kinzua lake shot shows the draw down of water that is common in winter. The DCNR/ArmyCorp prepares for snowmelt by releasing water from the reservoir-although that ultimately has been unnecessary the last two winters because of a lack of snow. That perhaps is because of the changing climate, and I suspect other new weather patterns will continue, especially now that we have a climate denying administration in power. It has been truly criminal how the fossil fuel industry-with help from politicians- has obsfucated the science, and how shortsighted the American public is in their acceptance of the status quo. I am quite pessimistic about the future when I observe so many people who claim to care about the environment hypocritically doing the opposite in their personal lives. They become distracted by deliberate propoganda about transgenders and immigrants and other issues, all the while the atmosphere heats up and the ocean acidifies and wildlife species die off...and they believe that none of the latter will affect them and their children and grandchildren? Do they truly think the current price of bread and gasoline and transgenders in the bathroom matter in the long perspective, or do they have no long perspective? They have just seen over 15 billion dollars wasted on the election yet they think there is not enough money for solar power or immigrant assitance or affordable housing? ...I have read books about engineers who are doing wonderful things about climate change such as designing new power transmission equipment to accept renewable sources, then I watch politicians forbid the importing of cheap electric Chinese vehicles. While importing vaccuum cleaners and cameras and bicycles and air conditioners and televisions is acceptible, selling automobiles that the average consumer could actually afford that might make a difference in American emissions is not; in truth, America prides itself on free enterprise until we are out competed by another country. So Republicans say they want to take America back, to dismantle the institutions and see what they can build from the rubble. Based on their lack of sound reasoning and disregard for facts and moral principles, I am fearful of what they shall erect. Politicians have rarely been our best people; now we shall see if the new leaders are qualified to address genuine problems.

My Final Trump Letter to Editor-with a postscript

>Letters to the editor in support of Mr. Trump often refer to Christian morality, and call him the “chosen one”, but that is difficult for the rest of us to understand when the man has broken at least 8 of the 10 commandments. Perhaps being anti-abortion is their motivation, yet in the year following a 6 week abortion ban in Texas, infant mortality rose 12.9 % over the previous year and infant death from fetal anomalies rose 23% compared to a decline of 3% in other states. Saving an embryo may feel right, but a day-old baby dying of malformations, or worse, being forced to live a life of suffering, has been one real world consequence. Look up the John Hopkins study... Contrary to claims by Mr. Trump, most illegal immigrants are not criminals so much as desperate people seeking a better life-just like the ancestors of present day Americans were doing. Many immigrants currently work at jobs like cleaning hotel rooms, roof construction and hard agricultural labor because natural born Americans do not want to do that important work. As for crime, the Texas Department of Public Safety reports that: “From 2012 to 2018, U.S.-born citizens were arrested for violent crimes at a rate that was more than twice that of undocumented immigrants. For drug crimes, U.S.-born citizens were arrested at a rate that was more than 2.5 times that of undocumented immigrants. For property crimes, U.S.-born citizens were arrested at a rate that was more than four times that of undocumented immigrants. “ In 2024, nationwide, the violent crime rate remains 49% below the peak in 1993, so despite fear mongering, crime is not the problem political propaganda says it is. In addition, most mass killings are perpetrated by white people, at 54%, followed by blacks, 17% and Latinos, at 8%. Check the FBI statistics... Despite Mr. Trump's denigration of America, the United States has been rated 3rd in ‘best overall country’ by U.S. News and World Report, behind only Switzerland and Japan. Anyone here earning more than $50 a day is in the top 20% worldwide, so when I see ‘Make America Great’ signs near houses where there are two cars in the driveway, a boat, an RV, a satellite dish and pizza box trash at the curb side, I conclude that Americans would do well to stop complaining and start appreciating what they have. Under Mr. Trump, the S&P 500 rose 58.3 % between January 2017 and January 2021, and in the last four years it has risen 51.1 % with 2 months remaining in 2024. So both presidencies have offered substantial market gains for all those with 401ks or other assets in the stock market. According to Investopedia, the national debt rose 33% under Mr. Trump and 17% under Mr. Biden as of 2023, but inflation has been a worldwide issue that has been the result of many factors- from supply chain shortages to consumer demand to profit taking to government spending. No president or country exists in isolation. The infrastructure being rebuilt under this administration and their support of cleaner energy sources are long overdue investments in the future. Those severe storms in Florida and North Carolina were predicted decades ago by scientists paying attention to reality... Some perceive Mr. Trump as being ‘tough’, yet according to his nephew and other family members, he evaded the draft in 1969 by having podiatrist Dr. Larry Braunstein, who was a tenant in one of his fathers buildings, write a false medical report claiming that he had bone spurs on his feet. Those perks of privilege were common during the Vietnam era, but since then he has mocked members of the military and tried to halt the peaceful transition of power that many veterans have died defending. His stated admiration of Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim Jon Un -both oppressive, sociopathic dictators willing to murder their own citizens-makes the rest of us wonder how those behaviors coincide with the Christian morality people think he represents? But I have no illusions about the sincerity of their convictions, and even close family members can disagree about politics and religion. Just remember that reality is nature's way of cutting through human hubris, and sooner or later truth emerges.< POSTSCRIPT- Mr.Trump won the election and some of my friends and family are deeply upset. While I truly wish the outcone had been different, my tendency is to see the larger perspective where politicians come and go. I encourage everyone to take a deep breath and continue their defense of truth,facts and the things they believe in. If someone or some policy asks you to do something you wholly disagree with, refuse.

Allegany State Park

We walked at Allegany park today (...spelled differently from Allegheny National forest because New York named the park in 1921 and saved that spelling even after the National geographic board adopted the 'egh' for the national forest) The leaves right now are just past their peak color, although compared to other years only certain trees had brilliant hues, with most of them a little muted/rusty.The lake was created by a dam and circling it is about 2 1/2 - 3 miles, with a swimming beach, fishing, kayaking and campsites nearby-the usual state park offerings. The weather this week has been exceptionally clear and warm, 70 degrees under blue skies, so Beth and I are taking advantage of it by hiking and biking and gardening and golfing.

Speaking of Plants...

The small oak tree in the pot is the second one we have found in the yard as a sprouted acorn. Eventually we will plant it somewhere like we did with the tree shown in the other pictures. The leaves of that first tree (a red oak) were eaten to bare wood twice, yet it refused to die, so we planted it in the ground for a year then replanted it in a more permanent location the next year. This year it blossomed to the size in the last photo, and seems to be well on its way. The following blog is about the latest research on plant behavior, which makes me extremely respectful of their will to live.

Plants

This is an enlightening book detailing the latest research on plant 'intelligence' or 'consciousness', although even among researchers there is still much disagreement on what terms to use to describe what they are discovering. That is, what word best describes the ability of plants to 'hear' the specific sounds of caterpillars muching on their leaves and respond appropriately with specific chemical insecticides to deter them? Or of the ability of common tomato plants to produce a chemical that can literally make caterpillars stop eating their leaves and start eating one another? Or the ability of some plants to recognize plants of their own genetic relation and so not grow their roots towards them in order to share resources while not doing that with unrelated plants? The list of 'intelligent' behavior is expanding as researchers continue to investigate, with more and more evidence accumulating to vindicate what I called 'sentience' among plants in Anti-Clock. For decades scientists were hesitant to study such things because of bias and fear of losing grants; such research is too borderline from the 'hard' sciences and open to mystical interpretation. But things have opened up in recent years and some of the discoveries are remarkable. Did you know that common ferns reproduce through spores that develop into a a tiny plant called a gametophyte, where the male reproductive structures on that plant produce sperm that swim in the moisture towards the female structure. So this book details all manner of new research about plants,which predate human beings by hundreds of millions of years and without which we would not exist.

Meanwhile

"On April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass within 19,794 miles (31,860 kilometers) of Earth's surface. This will be the closest approach to Earth by an asteroid of this size that scientists have known about in advance." While we are all hyper distracted by this and that on Earth, nature keeps reminding us that something could blind side us when most of us aren't looking. Of course, some people are looking, so astronomers discovered this 1,100 foot asteroid in 2004, and for awhile there was genuine concern that it might stike Earth with enough force to flatten a city. More precise calculations have reassured them-and everyone paying attention-that it will miss in 2029 and again in subsequent passes over the next 100 years. An asteroid of this size is estimated to strike the planet every 80,000 years. Personally, I am always oddly reassured by reminders that nature still dominates humanity despite our arrogance and hubris. Looking at the stars still humbles me to our insignificance within the Universe, and to the fragility of Earth and all of life living on it. While we argue and whine about political and religious and economic disagreements, the clock keeps ticking and the Universe keeps evolving. But 20,000 miles is pretty close-closer than some satellites orbit- and we will dodge a bullet this time; the math assures us; science assures us. A 1,100 foot asteroid is survivable unless you are directly under its impact zone. It would leave a crater some 3 miles wide and a damage radius of about 50 miles.Possibly we could attempt a deflection of a large

asteroid if there is the political will, and studying the 2029 trajectory of Apophis will more accurately determine its very unlikely chance of a 2068 impact. So life goes on within us and without us, as it has always done, and I have no doubt that life in some form will outlive us; the microbes that dominated for 3 billion years will dominate again. (...this is a photo of Apophis, named after a 'god of darkness/chaos' in Egyptian mythology)

Mars Life?

Can't definitively say anything yet, but this is the most promising indication of extraterresial life humans have found beyond Earth. To me it sure looks like the splotches lichens leave on rocks, but non living chemical origins have not been ruled out. Even if it is proof of ancient Mars life I suppose there is still the possibility that it originated on Earth and was projected over to Mars by an asteroid impact or some other exchange in the early solar system. Either way, scientists would Love to have this sample in an Earth based lab to do more extensive analysis. And as Edgar Mitchell,6th man to walk on the moon said in 1974: "You develop an instant global consciousness, a people orientation, an intense dissatisfaction with the state of the world, and a compulsion to do somethong about it. From out there on the moon, international politics look so petty. You want to grab a politician by the scruff of the neck and drag him a quater of a million miles out and say, "Look at that,you son of a bitch."

Abortion Restrictions 2 Plus Years on...

"In Texas, the 2022 mortality rate for infants went up 8% to 5.75 per 1,000 births, compared to a 2% increase in the rest of the U.S., according to the study in the journal JAMA Pediatrics. Among causes of deaths, birth defects showed a 23% increase, compared to a decrease of about 3% in the rest of the U.S." "...its so-called Heartbeat Act went into effect banning all abortions after six weeks, with no exceptions for rape, incest or fetal abnormalities." "...the study looks at a period from 2021 to 2022 after the Texas ban went into place,but before Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court, we should point out. And it found infant deaths in Texas rose nearly 13 percent compared to an increase of just 1.8 percent in the rest of the country.." ...Dr. Suzanne Bell: "Our findings regarding changes in the cause of death suggest deaths due to fetal anomalies that were incompatible with life were the largest source of the overall increase in infant mortality that we saw in Texas.Death due to birth defects increased by 23 percent in Texas from 2021 to 2022, while, in the rest of the United States, they decreased by 3 percent. And in the absence of an abortion ban, pregnant people that receive a diagnosis of a fetal anomaly would be counseled on the option to terminate, which is the choice many people make when the anomalies are incompatible with life or would cause significant suffering for the child." etc etc...So, rather than abort an embryo that likely would not feel the same pain as a fully developed baby... here we are ...The religious right had not, and often do not, fully analyze the implications and consequences of their views.

Trump and the Ten Commandments

Now that Louisiana-a state full of evangelical Trump supporters- has voted to put the Ten Commandments in school rooms, I wondered how Trump behavior stacked up against those dictums from'God'...I found this assessment online, and Know that number 2 also has been violated since the writer posted it; remember a few years ago when Mr.Trump sold those ridiculous trading cards of himself? The hypocrisy would be laughable if it weren't so dangerous. 1) Thou shalt have no other gods before me. - - The almighty dollar, or himself - probably violated. 2) Thou shalt not make unto thee any graven image. - - He doesn't carve, or order up statues to my knowledge? - probably ok. 3) Thou shalt not take the name of the Lord thy God in vain - - cussing, twitter, meetings with Pelosi - violated. 4) Remember the sabbath day, to keep it holy - - generally avoids church, works weekends - violated. 5) Honour thy father and thy mother - - no obvious data - probably ok. 6) Thou shalt not murder - - Iranian general - violated. 7) Thou shalt not commit adultery - - 3 wives, assorted escorts - violated. 8) Thou shalt not steal - - business history, contractors shorted, bankruptcies - violated. 9) Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour - - endless lies, against everyone - violated. 10) Thou shalt not covet (neighbour's house, wife, slaves, animals, anything else) - - assorted houses, wives, and anything else - violated. Now that the 'supreme court' has ruled immunity for presidents, miltary personnel must ask themselves- "Am I obligated to follow an immoral or illegal command?" from the commander in chief? And not that anyone will be convinced or swayed by humilty and reason and Jesus' true message of compassion, the book 'The Kingdom, The Power and The Glory-American Evangekicals in an Age of Extremmism' by Tim Alberta-a pastors son and longtime observer of Christian behavior- details the fall from grace of the modern evangelical church...Followers genuinely believe the country is going to hell, or, at least Democrats are, and this book offers information from an insiders view of how and why that is happening...

Cash...& perceived wealth

I am not anti-computers nor am I anti-credit cards; both have been very convenient to use for shopping, communication and research. I am also aware of the eventual obsolescence of cash as more transactions are performed digitally. However, I am from a generation when cash was dominant, and I have seen instances when processors at store registers have delayed the transaction due to whatever glitch was slowing them at that moment. About an hour ago I happened to buy something at the counter in the MacDonalds in Warren-something I rarely do-and the bill was $6.34, so I gave the clerk a five dollar bill, a one dollar bill and 35 cents. After working the register the clerk realized something did not seem correct when it told him the change was two dollars and some change, but he was not sure how to correct it. After he summoned a manager, I explained the situation and she thanked me for clarifying it. She too was uncertain exactly what had transpired...Using cash in this instance became as inefficient as a malfunctioning processor, but I hesitate to blame the clerk because he has grown up in a society weaning itself from physical money and likely has not had much experience nor education in its use. The current cost to produce a penny is 3.07 cents-mostly from the cost of the metal- which makes their use totally irrational.A nickel costs about 11.54 cents to produce, so that does not make sense either. A dime costs about 5 cents to produce and a quarter or half dollar also cost less than their value to make. A dollar bill costs 7.5 cents. So it seems that rounding prices up or down to the nearest dime would make sense if physical money stays in circulation. I suppose that when my generation dies the elimination of cash will be less controversial, although considering the security risks associated with digital transactions, maybe not... -Yesterday a retired couple we know-'professional' by trade -commented to their son that he would need "over a million dollars" to retire comfortably, so they advised him not to stop at that amount. Beth wisely remarked that it "depends on ones lifestyle", and we later wondered how people of wealth could become so disconnected from the realities of how most people in the world really live. "According to the 2023 Global Wealth Report, the average wealth per adult in 2022 was $84,718, which is a 3.6% decrease from 2021. The report also states that the wealth share of the global top 1% fell to 44.5% in 2022, and that wealth is concentrated in wealthier regions such as North America and Europe." "According to the World Bank, 712 million people were living in extreme poverty in 2022, which is a 23 million increase from 2019. The extreme poverty line is defined as less than $2.15 per day." So most people on this planet exist on far less than the priveleged few, and many of the latter deny the systematic historical reasons for why wealth has become concentrated in so few people. The covid pandemic exposed the truly necessary people in the world-those doing actual work at the lowest wages-but only by necessity have their wages begun to rise to liveable levels. Why not pay the people growing the food and stocking the shelves and installing the roofs and furnaces and doing all the other dirty, necessary jobs a fair wage rather than overpay lawyers and CEOs and actors and athletes and all the other superfluous people who could not exist without the former? Because money is power and people do all they can to hold onto power. The argument by some wealthy, educated people that Anyone can stock a shelf or pick a strawberry does not mean they themselves want to do it. So the wealth is hoarded by the few and they hold charities to assuage thier guilt rather than live on less. This retired couple and some wealthy people are not bad people; they are typical, church going citizens well liked in their community, but among the womans concerns yesterday was that her new, larger cell phone did not fit in her purse; there is something disturbing about a society where its citizens fret over such trivial problems- and where money can be put to better uses.

Eclipse

These are a few of many pictures my son Forrest took while watching the eclipse with Beth, myself, his wife Barb and daughter/granddaughter Renley. We travelled about 45 miles west to a small dam near Union City, where totality lasted just over 3 minutes...The clouds were threatening to obscure the view all morning, but the skies parted sufficiently in the afternoon to offer us fantastic viewing as the moon slowly covered the sun. As the corona revealed itself a phenomena called Bailys Beads appeared, which occurs as sunlight shines through craters and between mountains on the moon, then a thin red spectrum caused by hydrogen- called the chomoshere-became visible to the naked eye during totality. The drop in temperature as the sun became blocked was very noticable, as was the darkness as light was blocked. Watching a eclipse one becomes acutely aware of lifes total dependence on the sun, and how quickly the Earth would freeze were it to disappear; within months the ocean surface would freeze, as well as photsyntheisis stopping immediately,and most life, including humans would die within months to a year. Fortunately for those of us watching,the earth continued to rotate and the moons orbit continued, so light and warmth returned. Because of the present alighnment and relative sizes of the earth, moon and sun, total eclipses will only occur for another 500-600 millions years, and the next one in the USA will be in the year 2044.

Scenes From the West

        Spent 7 weeks escaping the winter this year, hiking and golfing and driving in circles around the southwest. This will be the last year using the van; in the future Beth and I plan on purchasing a hybrid-probably a Rav 4- and taking our bikes to Air B&Bs and motels around the country then exploring the areas in detail. The first picture is the first tee at a small 9 hole golf course in Jayton, TX, a town of about 1,200 people in the south eastern panhandle. I enjoyed this course because of its varied terrain, making it more interesting than many of the flat, open fairways common in the desert. This course was about two miles from the town which is located 25 miles from the next sizable town in the middle of the Texas desolation. In the same complex were the remains of two baseball fields and playground equipment-evidence that someone 30 years ago had invested a million dollars into their construction, only to be neglected and overgrown decades later. The golf course was being maintained by a few dedicated volunteers, and I could not help feeling saddened by the lost history of the place, where those bold dreams of long ago had become overgrown weeds in an outfield. ( click on the pics to enlarge...)

                That neglect is common across the country, as reflected in the abandoned downtown of Anton, TX , north of Lubbock. Except for a Dollar General store, Post Office, City Hall and a school, many small towns in the nation are virtually abandoned.  Crumbling houses and storefronts are all that remain, and it is easy to see that most of the population has moved on.  

   In central New Mexico is the Very Large Array, a radio telescope located far from light and electronic pollution,where astronomers can study pulsars and quasars and novas and other phenomena. Presently there are 27 antennas located on railroad tracks so they can be moved into various configurations, but plans are underway to replace this aging equipment with 160 new ones which will be supplemented by others across the nation. Personally, I encourage this use of tax dollars over weapons and other wasteful expenditures, and the walking tour enabled me a close up view of this far thinking scientific enterprise.                                                                                     The red canyon view was from a roadside rest near the Palo Duro Canyon area, also in the panhandle of Texas. I randomly stopped here and discovered this viewpoint, because Texas has numerous rest stops and some of them offer these wonderful views; the department of transportation actually makes an effort to consider terrain rather than just crowd people into congested places. There was no one else at this amazing site.

    The final picture is of the remains of a trailer off the Louisiana coast, devastated by a hurricane-the exact one I am not certain. That area south of Lake Charles has been hit by many storms in the past 5 years. The main lesson seems to be that even huge pylons are insufficient to protect against nature, and most of the people there are now living in travel trailers set on the concrete pads where their homes used to be. That seems to be the wisest option, because climate warming will only intensify the storms. Living in a movable house means that the owner can hook up the truck and move inland until the hurricane passes, then return and set up again.

 

Broken down Cars as of May 2024

 Whenever Beth and I take a road trip, we record the makes of the cars we see broken down beside the highway. We update after every trip and will continue to do so as we travel...As of the date in the title the totals were :

 Chevrolet/GMC -108   Dodge/Jeep- 64   Ford- 57   Honda/Acura- 35   Toyota/Lexus- 24   Nissan/Infiniti-23    Subaru-10     VW-8      Kia/Hyundai-14     Mazda- 5   Mitsubishi-5 BMW-5    Suzuki-2    Volvo-1   Also 5 unidentified vehicles of which we could not determine the manufacturer. 

       This is by no means a scientifically accurate indication of the reliability of these brands, because we do not know the age and maintenance records of the broken cars and other important information; generally speaking, foreign cars have a much better reliability record than domestic vehicles, and that pattern shows up in our informal observations. In the year 2022 the U.S. sales compared to 2021 were as follows.

1.	Toyota	1,849,751	Down 9%
2.	Ford	1,767,439	Down 2%
3.	Chevrolet	1,502,389	Up 6%
4.	Honda	881,201	Down 33%
5.	Hyundai	724,265	Down 2%
6.	Kia	693,549	Down 1%
7.	Jeep	684,612	Down 12%
8.	Nissan	682,731	Down 25%
9.	Subaru	556,581	Down 5%
10.	Ram Trucks	545,194	Down 16%
11.	GMC	517,649	Up 7%
12.	Mercedes-Benz	350,949	Up 7%
13.	BMW	332,388	Down 1%
14.	Volkswagen	301,069	Down 20%
15.	Mazda	294,908	Down 11%
16.	Lexus	258,704	Down 15%
17.	Dodge	190,793	Down 12%
18.	Audi	186,875	Down 5%
19.	Cadillac	134,726	Up 14%
20.	Chrysler	112,713	Down 2%
21.	Buick	103,519	Down 42%
22.	Acura	102,306	Down 35%
23.	Volvo	102,038	Down 16%
24.	Mitsubishi	102,037	Down 16%
25.	Lincoln	83,486	Down 4%
26.	Porsche	70,065	Flat
27.	Genesis	56,410	Up 14%
28.	INFINITI	46,619	Down 20%
29.	MINI	29,504	Down 1%
30.	Alfa Romeo	12,845	Down 30%
31.	Maserati	6,413	Down 10%
32.	Bentley	3,975	FLAT
33.	Lamborghini	3,134	Up 3%
34.	Fiat	915	Down 61%
35.	McLaren	840	Down 35%
36.	Rolls-Royce	460