Virus Thoughts

     While I was roaming around the south in February and heard about the corona virus, I dismissed the public reaction as overblown, assuming that it was essentially a flu like illness mostly dangerous to the elderly or those with compromised immune systems. That assessment is generally true, for apparently it is people with diabetes, heart, renal or lung problems, and those over 70years old who are most susceptible. Of course some younger people have died, and nationwide obesity has been a precursor of the above health conditions, so it has become a more serious disease than at first projected.

      In Colorado on March 13^th Beth and I first witnessed the panic buying of toilet paper, which confused us because the disease is primarily respiratory rather than intestinal, but we assumed that people were following some ignorant comment that they had read on Facebook or Twitter. Heading home we realized that such behavior was common nationwide as the pandemic had progressed, although more rational people have begun sewing masks and volunteering at food banks and doing other more positive things. 

       There is enough misinformation and disinformation and uncertainty regarding this pandemic that I do not believe anyone knows how it will all turn out, but I have no doubt that the country and the world will survive. With a 2% death rate, even if everyone in the world became infected there would remain some 6.4 billion people. Not much solace for those affected but definitely not the end of the human species. That assumes that the majorities of people would remain civil and turn to compassion rather than panic and selfishness. After seeing people fight over toilet paper I see that the mindset of the doomsday survivalists is based on hoarding guns and supplies to survive at any cost, not on generosity and compassion towards ones neighbors. When the Governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, claimed that he did not know about the asymptomatic transmission of the virus despite widespread knowledge being disseminated for at least a month, it is clear that some people in power- Governors and religious leaders- continue to deny science and facts. By contrast, the leading virologist in South Korea recommended masks and testing and social isolation immediately after the disease emerged, and now that country has had a much less deadly outbreak, so reality and science Do matter more than political posturing and denial and procrastination.

        Governor Andrew Cuomo seems to be the most rational and productive leader in all this, and he is dealing with the most serious outbreak up to this date (April 5^th). It is dis- heartening but not surprising that he is being criticized by people like Sean Hannity, who want Cuomo to allow the use of hydroxychloroquine despite minimal evidence that it actually works for Covid 19, and that it has potentially serious side effects. Should sick people be allowed to choose? Perhaps, but once again, science and facts are our best defense and offense against any disease- not the ramblings of a former general contractor who has spread bogus conspiracy theories in the past.

          At the very least this virus has illuminated the deficiencies in our preparedness for such an outbreak despite years of warnings by Bill Gates and others. Besides ignoring warnings, politicians and businessmen have been sending the manufacture of critical supplies to Chins for decades. Fortunately, Mr. Gates has committed the resources of his foundation to accelerating vaccine production. Because the Chinese had already sequenced and publicized the genetic code of this coronovirus back in January, and because of previous work done on similar viruses, there are some human trials beginning among several companies. Will they all work? No, but assuring the efficacy and safety of vaccines ( or anti viral medications) takes time, so even 12-18 months is a very short time span as far as vaccine production goes. This is how science will prevail, and why facts and patience and compassion are so essential in the meantime.
       Science writer Sonia Shaw-who has written extensively about pandemics past and present-presently has an informative TED talk on video. Anyone wishing to be genuinely educated should watch it. She mentions many factors influencing our present situation, one of which is a research program headed by virologist Peter Dazsak ( the Eco Health Alliance) that  follows microbes emerging from the wild. Scientists literally study animal borne microbes to observe which ones are mutating, then take steps to help prevent the final mutation from jumping to humans. Mr. Dazsaks research has been fundamental in developing the drug Remdesivir that has shown to be effective against some coronoviruses. Mr. Trump reduced the funding to that program last year. Another truth Ms. Shaw mentions is that we are only a few years and prayers away from an antibiotic resistant bacterium causing a much more persistent and deadly pandemic than Covid 19. Will Americans heed the warning and be better prepared before the next outbreak?

POSTSCRIPT: In Spring 2020 Peter Dazsak and other scientists were fundamental in trying to suppress the 'lab-leak' theory and only in 2021 have the self preservation efforts of him and the state department and the administration to suppress the truth of the viruses origins been revealed. It turns out that the American government had funded the Eco Health Alliance for years which then sent some of that money to a Chinese lab which studies viruses. The  bio hazard precautions of that Chinese  lab were more lax than many American labs would have employed. This is normal in the ongoing way scientists around the world cooperate to advance knowledge on viruses and other things.But in 2012 miners shoveling bat guano in a cave in southern China became sick and a few died with a Covid 2 type disease. The Chinese government has suppressed the release of the full genomes of all the viruses from that time, but it is probable the Wuhan lab-in conjunction with the Chinese military- was involved in studying the coronavirus which killed the miners, as well as other viruses. So American taxpayer money was involved in the ongoing scientific study of the viruses in the Chinese lab, which is not uncommon, although the lack of transparency by the Chinese government has corrupted the investigation as to whether the virus was from the original bat guano or has been modified since 2012. It seems likely that the bat virus-or some modified version- infected some lab workers and quickly spread to the city of Wuhan, then the world.